Month: June 2019

Barclays, Lloyds, Kingfisher and the Movie: Yesterday thoughts. We’re opting to start the week with an update on items reviewed last week and anything else which takes our fancy. Being “dragged” to watch “Yesterday” proved a pleasant surprise, a good film and tempted to go AGAIN! As for the important things, Bitcoin comes first.

To deal with Bitcoin, what happened proved quite fascinating from our nerdy perspective. At 5:30pm on Wed 26th, it achieved our 13,286 dollars. Better still, the phony currency exceeded target on the first surge, hitting 13,292 before sharply falling back to target level. This (thankfully) confirmed we’d been monitoring the correct trend but such was the pace of Bitcoin acceleration that next time it exceeded our target level, the price powered on upward to 13,880. And then, it dropped like a stone, almost feeling like the market “knew” it had gone to high and needed stuffed back under its rock.

The immediate problem is fairly straightforward. At present, it’s trading around the 11k level, needing below 10,200 to enter a cycle down to 9,300 and ideally a proper rebound.

It now requires – according to our criteria anyway – to trade above 12,925 as this calculates as entering a cycle to an initial 13,980 dollars. If bettered, secondary is at 14,550 and a new high since it broke an important downtrend. This sort of thing takes the price firmly into a region where a “long term – or later that day” target of 16,560 looks pretty certain to provoke some hesitation in any further upward surge.

Kingfisher appear to be doing something worthwhile. Our report (link here) mentioned the importance of the price bettering 222p anytime soon as it takes the share into a region with an initial 235p and beyond. From the point at which it closed last week, it should prove worth watching in the days ahead.

Barclays theoretically does not need discussed, the share price continuing to wobble around in a Zombie state. While our report (link here) demands in better 162p to be taken seriously, it will probably be worth watching for trades exceeding 152p in the week ahead, due to an initial 157 looking possible with secondary 160p. While neither is sufficient to remove the share from Big Picture trouble, it will illustrate rather neatly the reality of prices rarely going straight UP or DOWN.

Lloyds assiduously avoided breaking below our 56p trigger level (Report link here) but to be honest, we’ve little confidence in the price. However, Friday’s session commenced with a peculiar price movement, one which apparently calculates with near term movement above the days high of 57.43 being capable of some growth to a pretty tame looking 59.12p. If exceeded, secondary is at 60.3p. As explained with Barclays above, neither target proves sufficient to extract the share price from danger.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:01:42PM	BRENT	64.43	64.02	63.88	63.54	65.55	66.08	66.64	67.51	65.14	‘cess
12:03:32PM	GOLD	1409.9									‘cess
12:05:32PM	FTSE	7450.77									‘cess
12:07:17PM	FRANCE	5531									‘cess
12:09:27PM	GERMANY	12449.37	12314	12267	12206	12409	12450	12470.5	12514	12370	Success
12:11:10PM	US500	2950.17									Success
12:12:40PM	DOW	26654.4
3:11:46PM	NASDAQ	7696.99
3:14:19PM	JAPAN	21375									‘cess

28/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7425 points. Change of 0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,545,369,204 a change of 24.51%

27/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7402 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,256,939,146 a change of -12.83%

#Nasdaq #DAX We started this week, proposing a scenario where Bitcoin could soar to 13,286 dollars. The scenario triggered, the phony currency actually achieving 13,800 before hitting a bit of turbulence. Perhaps turbulence is a bit of understatement, given the -20% thrashing it received. In fact, it may fall further.

Continued Bitcoin weakness below 10,330 calculates with the potential of a further 1,000 dollar drop. It “should” bounce by 9,330, especially due to it exceeding our earlier upward target. The implication given is of further strength in the future now calculating with 16,000 dollars and beyond.

Current behaviour highlights one of our great dislikes with Bitcoin. Traditionally, we give primary and secondary targets, our thinking being of turbulence at each target level. In the case of Bitcoin, it often vaguely follows “the rules” but with price swings more reminiscent of AIM shares 10 years ago. When ramping groups would seek to substantially enhance investors expectations, creating a buying frenzy for dodgy AIM companies, invariably this would leave a majority of investors “walking funny”. Thankfully, this is one area where market authorities tend exert some control and Pump & Dumps, while still present, are less frequent. Of course, there’s now Bitcoin available to damage traders wealth as its price swings can defy logic.

As for The FTSE for Friday (It closed Thursday at 7,402), we’ve a ruling expectation of the index heading to 7,328 points and hopefully a bottom. The market needs better 7,437 to escape the immediate downtrend, giving a pretty easy visual level for a stop loss. Anything near term below 7,375 should promote the final downhill drag to target. There is a problem, if 7,328 breaks. We obviously can calculate a secondary and it’s at 7,302 points, a level where a real rebound can be hoped.

Importantly, if we opt to review the upward potentials for the index, the market presently needs better 7,432 points to trigger a near term rise toward 7,464 points. We have some doubts about this, given it would exceed the market downtrend since May 2018! In the unlikely basis this proves correct, our secondary calculates at 7,464 and, rather amazingly, takes the UK market into a longer term region with 7,630 as a major ambition.

Have a good weekend. It’s the Austrian GP, generally quite a good one following the utter boredom supplied by France, yet again. Perhaps F1 management could do race fans a favour, ditching both Monaco and France from the annual event calendar as neither tend deliver an actual race.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:17PM	BRENT	65.55
9:57:38PM	GOLD	1409.64
9:59:42PM	FTSE	7407.6									Shambles
10:02:28PM	FRANCE	5489.7									‘cess
10:05:17PM	GERMANY	12301	12216	12173	12119	12289	12335	12354	12403	12258	‘cess
10:06:46PM	US500	2929.22
10:09:11PM	DOW	26555
10:11:18PM	NASDAQ	7659.25	7620	7598	7534	7690	7690	7719.5	7753	7626
10:13:29PM	JAPAN	21222									‘cess

27/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7402 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,256,939,146 a change of -12.83%

We’re not fond of #Bitcoin but our report on Sunday at http://www.trendsandtargets.com/index.php/2019/06/23/bitcoin-etc-for-24-06-2019/ proved rather prophetic. insert; smug gits image

That was very fast, once again proving we’re not Time Lords!

#SP500 #CAC40 Sometimes we rabbit on about “horizontal trends” and nowhere is the feature quite as demonstrated as Barclays share price since 2011. We’ve shown it with a Purple line on the chart, though perhaps it may be Magenta. Surprisingly, there was even military conflict regarding this, The Battle of Magenta between the French and the Austrians in 1859!

Spoiling the story, the colour conflict had nothing to do with the battle, especially as the dye was discovered in 1859 and named in honour of the event. It is interesting to note the leader of French forces was actually of Irish descent, his family driven out of Ireland due to English property confiscations, opting to settle in France. Patrice de MacMahon (Paddy to his mates) eventually became President of France!

Aside from a whimsical wander through history, along with an ongoing in-house debate regarding Purple or Magenta, we should really discuss what’s happening (or rather NOT happening) with Barclays share price.

Last time we reviewed it, we waxed lyrical about the dangers of 148.823p, if the share had the temerity to close below this level. Such a disaster has happened 3 times in the last week, salt being rubbed on the wound by the price also trading below 147p (apparently the final drop trigger) for a few hours. Yet, the price has not plunged into the abyss of doom, instead appearing to find some sort of excuse for a bounce.

Alas, this is where the Purple (or Magenta) line comes into play, a horizontal trend dating back 8 years and one we’d ignored, due to Barclays share price habit of dipping below this 147p line, only to recovery sharply thereafter. Only in 2016 – following the Brexit vote (circled) – did the price conclusively dip below this line but once again, sharply recovered. It’s important to accept therefore this trend can be broken. The situation now, from a Big Picture perspective, is of weakness below 146p now entering a cycle down to an initial 134p. Secondary, when broken, is a bottom, hopefully, of 114p.

To a degree, it feels we are clutching at straws, perplexed Barclays has avoided the opportunity to drive off a cliff. The answer to our confusion doubtless lies with politics and political uncertainty as we await white smoke coming from 10 Downing St chimney to tell us which bus driver has been anointed to actually steer the nation.

Currently, Barclays share price requires above 162p to suggest it has actually bottomed, in doing so entering a region where a cycle to 175p should commence. If bettered, a longer term 192p is now possible.

If we adhere to our “normal” rules, we must accept 114p looks like the eventual drop target.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:33PM	BRENT	65.52									Success
10:15:00PM	GOLD	1409.66									‘cess
10:16:56PM	FTSE	7399.76									Shambles
10:19:28PM	FRANCE	5495.5	5492	5464.5	5425	5533	5533	5544	5561	5500	Shambles
10:21:51PM	GERMANY	12239.42
10:23:47PM	US500	2910	2909	2902.5	2882	2927	2934	2942	2953	2914	‘cess
10:26:14PM	DOW	26522
10:33:12PM	NASDAQ	7614.37									‘cess
10:38:42PM	JAPAN	21094									Sorry

 

 

 

 

26/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,030,549,903 a change of 13.52%

#SP500 #NK225 Our monthly visit to a favourite Banking Sector candidate, Lloyds, once again permitted self congratulation for a prior report. (Link Here) Alas, the next few sessions are liable to prove “interesting”, thanks to the potentials if the price manages to stumble below 56p. We moaned, previously, of banking shares dancing to Brexit tunes and this remains the case.

In fact, if we review the overall banking sector, FTSE:NMX8250, at time of writing it’s trading at 3781 and is flirting with some fairly nasty dangers. It only requires weakness below 3730 to trigger some misery down to an initial 3600 with secondary, when broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 3212 points. Crucially, similar to Lloyds, it has not yet broken its final immolation trigger, so hope remains.

In the case of Lloyds, below 56p now calculates with travel down to 51.8 next. This ambition coincides with a long term uptrend which implies a bounce can be expected, should such a level make an appearance. Our secondary, if 51.8 breaks, is down at 46.8p, a point where there’s almost a requirement for a rebound. The “however” is quite dangerous, thanks to 46.8 taking the share into a region where the Big Picture computes with 41p as a pretty major expectation, along with an eventual journey down to 26p.

Our suspicion is we shall witness 51.8p eventually and this should co-incide with the overall sector at the 3600 level. And hopefully, everything should rebound.

At present, we require Lloyds to exceed 62.25p as this should calculate with a genuine bounce, propelling the share into a region where an initial 67p is supposed to be real. According to the tea leaves, our secondary of 71.25p risks being game changing for the longer term, allowing some fairly impressive (and unheard of for nearly 10 years) longer term target levels.

For now, while we can hope 51.8p shall be “it”, historical behaviour in the banking sector makes us fear the worst.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:28:35PM	BRENT	64.45
9:30:48PM	GOLD	1422.93									Success
9:41:09PM	FTSE	7396									Shambles
9:42:50PM	FRANCE	5494.7
9:44:58PM	GERMANY	12188.79									‘cess
9:47:02PM	US500	2918.29	2915	2913	2896	2937	2937	2942	2951	2920	Success
9:49:46PM	DOW	26558.5									‘cess
9:52:07PM	NASDAQ	7601.75									Success
9:54:34PM	JAPAN	21094	21058	20994	20787	21188	21223	21253	21318	21112	‘cess

25/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7422 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,312,471,944 a change of 3.25%

#Gold #SP500 A bloke at B&Q (owned by Kingfisher) provided part of the reason many folk in the UK voted for Brexit. Buying a replacement WC turned into a headache with the discovery EU Regulations apparently intrude in the toilet. Modern loos, such as sold in B&Q and every other bathroom showroom I was dragged around, don’t flush properly. Everyone knows but no-one has addressed the issue.

The problem, apparently, came from Brussels and a demand we embrace “water saving”, enforced with a 4 litre or 6 litre flush. It would be difficult to find a plumber who approves of these modern designs and a need to flush the things 2 or 3 times. Thanks to Google, it was quickly established our existing loo had a 13 litre flush and we’d be daft replacing it. The bloke at B&Q was convinced dodgy toilets formed a convincing reason for people voting to leave!  It can be safely assumed I did not go into last weekend with the expectation of learning about toilet flushes. It is even the case regulations only apparently effect new installations, whereas the bulk of sales will be for folk upgrading existing installations of bathroom furniture.

Surely, the Daily Mail must embrace a headline about “Brussels and A Busted Flush!”

We’re not entirely convinced B&Q’s choice of stocking EU Approved WC’s is entirely the reason for their falling share price, despite the company not stocking a single WC which matches UK slightly less restrictive regulations. For now, it appears our downstairs loo is fated to remain with its peculiar square seat design, thanks to a company called Shires with a sense of design humour.

It appears weakness now below 201p on Kingfisher shares should flush the price down to 184p next, a point at which we’d expect some sort of rebound. But take extreme care, should 184p break as it could easily drain down to 166p next. Worse, from a Big Picture perspective, the share price is already trading in a region where negative news could drip the value down to a bottom, hopefully, at 142p in a blink.

For any near term bounce to prove viable, the share price requires exceed 222p to enter a cycle toward an initial 235p. If exceeded, we’ll be suitably convinced bottom is “in” (for now) and hope, if 235p bettered, our calculation of secondary at 249p shall prove valid.

Finally, apparently there is a vibrant market for 2nd hand toilets with “proper” flush capability, though it does not come close to matching cross border illicit trade between USA (regulated toilets) and Canada (unregulated toilets)…

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:44PM	BRENT	64.23									‘cess
9:50:20PM	GOLD	1418.61	1400	1395	1386	1412	1422	1430	1438	1411	‘cess
10:03:45PM	FTSE	7406									‘cess
10:07:11PM	FRANCE	5509.5
10:09:06PM	GERMANY	12257
10:10:59PM	US500	2947.02	2943	2935.5	2926	2956	2956	2959.5	2965	2945
10:13:06PM	DOW	26747.5
10:16:33PM	NASDAQ	7729.62
10:18:36PM	JAPAN	21201

 

24/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,145,390,114 a change of -65.74%

Bitcoin and Last Week Reviewed. The stunt we pulled with Gold last Monday was pleasing to say the least. If it now betters 1398, then an initial 1401 still looks possible but realistically, it could power on to 1416. Tuesdays GBPUSD has proven boring with nothing major triggering YET. As for Wednesdays Barr Group, thoughts of 860p and a bounce remain valid.

Berkeley Group Holdings, reviewed on Thursday, thus far failed do anything of interest but keeping a weather eye for the longer term, along with 2680 making an appearance, should not be time wasted.

Friday and our analysis of the FTSE successfully produced an initial 26 point drop, breaking our initial target on the first surge and therefore making our secondary at 7365 hopefully capable of provoking some sort of bounce. It was rather annoying waiting from 2pm until 4:25pm before the initial drop completed. Suddenly, as if shocked out of its boredom, the FTSE indeed provided a short lived bounce back to the 7399 level, then dropped further for the final two minutes of trade. It results in a suspicion Monday shall commence the session slightly down, hopefully bouncing from our 7365 level. But should 7365 break, we do not expect the FTSE to achieve an UP day. Quite the converse.

As for Bitcon, it’s now showing surprising potentials as movement above 11,216 calculates with 12,070 as an initial target. If bettered, secondary computes at 13,286 longer term. (Or sometime later that day!) For it all to go completely wrong, Bitcoin requires weaken below 8,800 as this will tend nullify all longer term ambitions on the immediate cycle. Instead, it opens a trapdoor to 6,916 initially with secondary a return to 4,058.

For now, we suspect 12,070 shall prove capable of providing some hesitation.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
5:58:04PM	BRENT	64.75	63.75	63.55	63.01	64.96	65.21	65.64	65.75	63.4	‘cess
6:08:02PM	GOLD	1399.83									‘cess
6:09:55PM	FTSE	7364.02									‘cess
6:11:35PM	FRANCE	5505									Shambles
6:19:20PM	GERMANY	12250	12244	12202	12123	12328	12423	12436.5	12501	12302	Success
6:21:05PM	US500	2944.67
6:23:18PM	DOW	26670									Shambles
6:30:17PM	NASDAQ	7720
6:32:20PM	JAPAN	21177									‘cess

21/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7407 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 15,020,555,718 a change of 133.04%

20/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7424 points. Change of 0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,445,371,842 a change of -2.22%