Month: May 2019

UBER #Brent #Dax The media have been frantically inventing numbers in an attempt to make sense of what happened with Uber. It seems, in the USA, conventional wisdom expected the share price to accelerate upward, perhaps even to the 80 dollar mark. Instead, the IP fizzled, closing the day down 7.6%

Traditionally, we dislike IPO’s as often they appear designed to extract funds from the gullible, those folk who believe a share price will always keep heading upward. More usually, once any PR hype fades, the gullible find themselves trapped at the top of a price cycle, watching their money going on what usually is a protracted holiday.

When reviewing price movements during Fridays share launch, a couple of interesting numbers appear to have made themselves known.

Firstly, if the IPO is in real trouble, the share price needs below 38 dollars to justify real panic. Aside from knowing the market wants to drive the price downward, we’d be unable to project any realistic “bottom”. The immediate situation suggests weakness below 41 risks a visit to an initial 39.8 with secondary, if broken, at the critical 38 dollar bottom.

On the plus side, price growth above 45 is liable to promote growth to an initial 46 dollars. If bettered, secondary calculates at 46.7. Unfortunately, the share price requires exceed 48.20 to suggest it’s about to get illogical as we’re completely unable to calculate higher beyond such. In other words, if the market exceeds 48.20, the market intends to UBER somewhere interesting.

For now, it give the excuse to present the most boring chart available!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
5:07:02PM	BRENT	70.47	68.9	67.99	66.78	70.4	70.96	71.155	71.84	69.83
5:08:53PM	GOLD	1286.13
5:10:35PM	FTSE	7280.98
5:12:10PM	FRANCE	5391									‘cess
5:14:15PM	GERMANY	12201	11963	11905	11804	12122	12210	12246.5	12344	12108
5:16:11PM	US500	2886.17									‘cess
5:19:06PM	DOW	25955.4									Shambles
5:36:05PM	NASDAQ	7600.12									Success
5:38:07PM	JAPAN	21493									‘cess

10/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7203 points. Change of -0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,100,896,801 a change of -16.78%

FTSE #DOW #GOLD We’ve some puzzlement about the price of Gold – and Bitcoin! Conventional wisdom used to suggest, when markets relax, Gold would strengthen. However, weakness since late April has seen the price of Gold essentially flatline. But Bitcoin has reached our target , growing 20%! Is Bitcoin the new Gold?

It’s funny but when searching for images relating to Bitcoin, invariably graphic design people opt to make the fake coin look like a gold coin. And now, when we witness markets such as the DOW, Germany, FTSE, and even Japan relax, it’s against a backdrop of Bitcoin strengthening.

If this is the case, there’s a pretty fair chance something interesting is about to happen.

Our last report against Bitcoin postulated the 6,000 dollar level as pretty important. In the last few weeks, the price has moved from the 5,000 mark to the 6,000 level and our usual logic suggests some hesitation in Bitcoin at this point. At time of writing, it’s at 6,065 and we’d been arguing for 6,034 – close enough! But the big question we’re asking is simple;

If Bitcoin hesitates, will the markets show recovery?

For this (POTENTIALLY DAFT) theory to be correct, we need to see the FTSE exceed 7234 today, Friday. This triggering movement should permit recovery to an initial, utterly unimpressive, 7244 points. Perhaps more useful, our secondary if such a level bettered, calculates at 7272 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is 7192 points – yesterdays low.

As always, we’ve a converse movement scenario.

Below 7192 now allows for 7180 points and hopefully a realistic bounce. There’s a big problem awaiting if 7180 breaks as our next calculation allows for a bottom at 7085 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7244 points.

Have a good weekend. For us, it’s paella time  and the Spanish GP!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:09:15PM	BRENT	70.01
10:11:06PM	GOLD	1284.48	1279	1276.175	1272.19	1287	1289	1297.635	1308.12	1279
10:12:59PM	FTSE	7251.14									‘cess
10:15:51PM	FRANCE	5357.8									‘cess
10:18:38PM	GERMANY	12076.75									‘cess
10:21:04PM	US500	2871.52									Success
10:30:24PM	DOW	25815	25555	25416	25200	25880	25927	26065	26253	25724	Success
10:34:13PM	NASDAQ	7584									Success
10:36:43PM	JAPAN	21310									Success

 

 

9/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7207 points. Change of -0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,129,391,358 a change of -8.32%

#France #Nasdaq We’re not jumping on the Marvels Avengers bandwagon, despite one of their characters being ‘Drax’. A Google search for ‘Drax’ did turn up the bonkers statistic shown below. Just 15 ships produce more pollution than ALL cars, worldwide, but instead, people protest Drax providing wood pellets for fires! As for Drax’ share price…

We last reviewed DRAX in August last year (link here) and pleasingly, it achieved our initial growth target. What happened was quite strange. We’d written a target of 403 in the report, yet the published chart cheerfully gave the target at 423p. Despite both the erroneous 403 AND the correct 423 being attained, our often repeated insistence a share price actually close above a target level was highlighted clearly, when reviewing the Candles vs Closing Price charts. Unfortunately, in this instance, we got it a little wrong as despite the price actually closing 4p above our target level on two occasions, the price has reversed more than we would like.

However, a glance at the bigger picture tends indicate the threat of reversal should not prove too devastating. The immediate situation is of weakness below 322p opening the gates which permit reversal down to 263p. We would anticipate a bounce, should such a level appear. An initial ambition, doubtless a longer term one, calculates at 392p. If bettered – definitely with closure above, our secondary is at 564p eventually.

There’s the risk of a real problem, if the price somehow winds its way below 263p. Our secondary, challenging the long term uptrend, calculates at 236p. In itself, this isn’t great visual problem but unfortunately, 236p making an appearance totally fouls our upward target calculations and risks the share price becoming range-bound for a while.

For now, our suspicion is of this proving worth watching for 263p eventually making an appearance.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:03:08PM	BRENT	70.03
9:06:01PM	GOLD	1280.81									Success
9:09:31PM	FTSE	7287.18									‘cess
9:25:00PM	FRANCE	5415.2	5364	5345	5289	5452	5431	5441	5467	5375
9:26:53PM	GERMANY	12216.87									Success
9:29:24PM	US500	2887.17
9:31:42PM	DOW	26052.4									Shambles
9:34:09PM	NASDAQ	7634.37	7590	7567.5	7530	7670	7687	7711	7758	7605	Shambles
9:37:48PM	JAPAN	21525

8/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7271 points. Change of 0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,685,988,322 a change of -11.16%

#Gold #SP500 The very existence of these complex ‘toast & cheese’ outlets remains a constant puzzle*. So it came as no surprise to see their share price experience a bit of a calamity this year, presumably due to European foodstuffs being off the Brexit menu? Who knows but despite recovery during the session, the 7th May witnessed the market driving the pizza price down.

Domino’s share price opened at 233p, down from a closing price of 260p before the bank holiday weekend. Despite a miracle recovery during the session, we were not entirely convinced as the market had NOT spiked the price down at the open, instead opting to gap (manipulate) the share down by 27p, virtually 10% of its value. Though Domino’s eventually closed the day at 254p, down just 1.46%, we’ve a strong suspicion the market wants Domino’s price to reverse.

The immediate situation suggests traffic below 229 should lead to an initial 213p and a probably short lived bounce. If this target level is broken on the initial surge, our secondary calculates at 182p, hopefully with the chance of a longer term real bounce. Unfortunately, reversal such as this will take the price into a region where negative news could easily drive the price down to 122p.

As the chart highlights, the price has proven rather resilient in its relationship to the longer term RED uptrend. This complex series of movements now means we require the share to exceed 288p to convince it’s breaking trend and heading upward. In such an event, our initial calculation is at 311p with secondary, if bettered, a more useful 341p.

Unfortunately, for now, we suspect it’s going to head to 182p as the next major point of interest.

* As someone who’s gluten intolerant, I cannot eat pizza!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:15PM	BRENT	69.6
10:09:36PM	GOLD	1284.5	1279	1277	1274	1284	1285	1287.5	1291	1278
10:12:39PM	FTSE	7251.03									Success
10:17:02PM	FRANCE	5380									‘cess
10:21:23PM	GERMANY	12081.58									Success
10:23:37PM	US500	2890.97	2861	2850	2839	2890	2895	2904.5	2919	2865	‘cess
10:27:28PM	DOW	26000.9
10:30:50PM	NASDAQ	7660.62									‘cess
10:34:16PM	JAPAN	21665									Success

 

7/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7260 points. Change of -1.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,525,956,733 a change of 41.46%

We last reviewed #GBPEUR back in February, (link here) successfully calculating a target level which has now been achieved. With such levels of political uncertainty, coupled with what often appears wilful political incompetence, we quite genuinely had doubts as to anything actually happening. #BRENT

Now, with the ball kicked down the beach for a while, the calculation allowing for 1.20 next remains valid but the pairing really needs move beyond 1.1810 to give a suspicion the next leg up is beginning. Unfortunately, rather than 1.20, we suspect a future rise shall stall first around 1.1925 before heading to the 1.20 level and an almost certain glass ceiling.

Only once the relationship actually closes above 1.20 shall we dare sing the virtues of 1.240 and beyond.

If trouble is coming, the pair requires weaken below 1.15 to indicate coming travel down to 1.1285. In itself, this is not a particularly scary movement but the real danger shall appear if they close a session below 1.128. Such a scenario runs the risk of triggering reversal to 1.08 initially. This takes the pairing into a zone where 1.03, perhaps even parity, becomes very possible.

For now though, there is considerable hope we shall see moves in the future beyond 1.181, once again strengthening the pound  (to the surprise of everyone!)

FUTURES

3/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7380 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,320,179,357 a change of -4.47%

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:34:42PM	BRENT	71.38	69.95	68.78	66.75	71.65	71.63	72.055	73.19	70	Success
9:45:54PM	GOLD	1280.49									Success
9:47:28PM	FTSE	7398.86
9:49:58PM	FRANCE	5503.7
9:53:25PM	GERMANY	12328.98	12217	12167.5	12070	12257	12340	12441.75	12486	12240	‘cess
9:56:46PM	US500	2932.37									‘cess
9:59:02PM	DOW	26449.7
10:00:58PM	NASDAQ	7777
10:03:13PM	JAPAN	22089

FTSE for FRIDAY #SP500 #NK225 For the first time ever, visitor numbers from the USA exceeded visitors from the UK. In fact, the surge in USA visitors exceeded the rest of the world combined! It was quite amazing witnessing what happens, when a couple of our reports were referenced in New York. But Reunion Island visitors still feature, giving a weekly “wish I was there” boost to travel ambitions.

As for the FTSE for Friday, a glance at the bigger picture reveals something fairly alarming. During April, the UK market exceeded the downtrend for the last 12 months, flounced around but failed achieve escape velocity, and now has retreated below the BLUE trend. In addition, the FTSE has broken the immediate RED uptrend for 2019.

In plain English, we’re not optimistic as the UK index requires exceed 7433 to regain confidence!

If taking a shot in the dark SHORT position, betting on our political leaders competence, this affords a “fairly reasonable” stop loss level, given the UK closed Thursday at 7351 points.

Near term, it appears alarm bells will be justified, if the FTSE trades below 7338 points as reversal to an initial 7311 makes sense. If broken, our secondary calculates at 7240, a point at which we’d hope for a bounce. We’d be remiss if we failed to point out the FTSE is once again trading in a region where 6750 makes sense for the longer term.

It’s always difficult to be confident about Long potentials, when a market has entered a reversal phase. Often, despite triggers being met, a share will only achieve our initial “safe” target with any rise withering before the secondary target level. At present, the FTSE requires above 7395 to indicate miracle recovery to 7433 points initially (insufficient to escape the drop cycle). If bettered, secondary is at 7502 and visually quite believable.

Have a good holiday weekend.

FUTURES

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:57:51PM	BRENT	70.35									Success
10:13:38PM	GOLD	1270.8									Success
10:15:19PM	FTSE	7345.41
10:19:19PM	FRANCE	5536									‘cess
10:20:55PM	GERMANY	12328.44									‘cess
10:23:13PM	US500	2917.97	2897	2888	2876	2925	2931	2939	2953	2904	‘cess
10:25:28PM	DOW	26302									‘cess
10:27:48PM	NASDAQ	7726.82									‘cess
10:29:27PM	JAPAN	22296	22147	22077	21945	22358	22388	22464	22562	22218

2/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,569,031,363 a change of 41%

Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA) #DAX #DJI This one’s a bit of an oddball and they’re to release their results after the business close on the 2nd. The reason for its “oddball” status comes from Google website adverts. For some reason, we are bombarded with promotional material for Tableau with Google often allocating all advertising space on a webpage toward this company.

Of course, it’s doubtless caused by our “cookie cache” which reflects website preferences.

To get the good news out of the way first, it shall prove interesting if the share next trades above 126. Such a movement has surprising potentials, opening the door for a visit to 137 next. If bettered, secondary calculates as a longer term 154. In fact, it appears even 168 may be dreamt of for the future, this being a level we’d expect some major hesitation.

The reason for such vivid rise potentials occurred during March with the share price achieving a series of “higher highs”. From our perspective, the 137 level was mathematically correct and now, a revisit to such a point which proves capable of exceeding 137 should bring some sharp growth thereafter.

As often the case, there’s a fly in the burgandy.

The two chart insets highlight a particular phenomena. Despite traders clearly showing some enthusiasm during the pre-results-day session, exquisite care was used to ensure the price did not close the session above the immediate downtrend. This sort of nonsense is always a worry, carrying the implication the market knows something.

We’d certainly have some serious concerns if the price is pushed below 115 for any reason as this threatens a visit to an initial 108. If broken, secondary comes along at 104, along with a challenge of the ruling uptrend since 2017.

We would expect a bounce, should 104 be achieved.

Quite a few emails are being received, asking for updates on USA shares. We suspect the reason is due to many European movements simply not making sense due to politics.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:43:17PM	BRENT	72.05
10:45:30PM	GOLD	1276.74									‘cess
10:48:17PM	FTSE	7327.25									Success
10:49:58PM	FRANCE	5595
10:51:29PM	GERMANY	12370.49	12276	12251	12209	12353	12377	12390	12432	12293
10:54:22PM	US500	2915.17									‘cess
10:59:31PM	DOW	26375	26347	26268	26122	26466	26465	26524	26585	26347	Sorry
11:02:58PM	NASDAQ	7724.9									‘cess
11:10:36PM	JAPAN	22163									‘cess

1/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7385 points. Change of -0.44%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,949,801,557 a change of -35.7%