FTSE FRIDAY for 24/05/2019

#Gold #SP500 As we live through the final days of a failed political career, it’s easy to imagine the abrupt downward surge on the FTSE was a direct result of the UK’s “Strong and Stable (aka, Weak and Shoogly)” governance. We’re fairly confident drops experienced on Thursday had nothing to do with the Prime Minister.

It all goes back to a market movement, worldwide, on Wednesday. Sharp eyed readers viewing our evening UK Futures noted we used the word “Shambles” to describe the previous days results. Our preference, obviously, is to use “Success” or ” ‘cess”, denoting whether one or two targets were achieved. We only employ “Shambles” when market behaviour makes absolutely no sense. Only once the day was over and tempers calmed did we start to suspect what had happened.

At 13:26 on Wednesday, a whole bunch of indices both in Europe and the USA dropped, for a couple of seconds, below levels we’d designed as key trigger levels to open SHORT positions. Once these short positions triggered, the indices immediately reversed direction, spending the following 90 minutes climbing above logical Stop Loss levels for each and every one of the SHORT positions.

Thus, the trades would be cancelled and traders left out of pocket. A co-ordinated effort, internationally, reminded us sharply why we avoid comment on Forex unless from a Big Picture perspective. This sort of market behaviour, in our opinion, is rather lacking in ethics. The following private note was included on Wednesday evening for our clients;

With shares, I tend regard this as a clear warning signal for a coming drop with the market opting to trigger a bunch of trades with attractive stop loss levels. This essentially clears out the folk who were poised to take advantage of coming reversals.”

Markets dropped sharply on Thursday, as feared. But behaviour on Wednesday was clearly designed to wipe out SHORT positions, prior to the drop!

Our tantrum over, what’s next?

The FTSE actually dropped further than we’d like. It closed Thursday at 7230 points and now lurks with the threat of weakness below 7210 bringing travel down to 7160 points next. Our secondary, should 7156 break, calculates at 7091 points.

If triggered, the tightest stop level looks like 7270 points. But given market behaviour as listed previously, we’d prefer wider still at 7301 points.

We’ve an obvious disparity between a drop target 7160 and trigger level of 7156. This is fairly simple, due to the FTSE being manipulated (gapped) downward by 14 points at the open on Thursday morning. Essentially, this nonsense confuses our software.

What happens if the FTSE exceeds 7270 points? Initially we’re looking for 7300 points. Our secondary, if such a point exceeded, calculates at 7375 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7210 points.

Perhaps it is also worth mentioning the index (somehow) remains above the 2019 Red uptrend on the chart below. We’re far from comfortable this state of affairs shall continue.

On a brighter note, it’s the Monaco GP this weekend, possibly the most boring race on the F1 calendar yet one which makes compulsive viewing in the hope something happens. Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:25:51PM

BRENT

67.02

               

Success

10:28:00PM

GOLD

1284

1272.82

1270.5

1265

1279

1287.25

1291

1298

1279

Success

10:31:18PM

FTSE

7233.72

               

Success

10:33:56PM

FRANCE

5284.7

               

Success

10:37:14PM

GERMANY

11948

               

‘cess

10:39:15PM

US500

2821.12

2810

2800.5

2770

2835

2845

2850.5

2866

2822

Success

10:43:26PM

DOW

25485.8

               

Success

10:45:47PM

NASDAQ

7308.12

               

Success

10:48:17PM

JAPAN

20874

               

Success

23/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7231 points. Change of -1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,924,231,411 a change of -15.02%

RBS for 23/05/2019

RBS #SP500 #NK225 In our monthly visit to “The Bank that likes to say ‘Doh!’ “, the star of the clown sector of the FTSE has performed pretty much as expected. Our prior report (link here) was notable in lacking any confidence for an immediate share price recovery and now, we require to examine what the break of our initial target risks?

With the share price breaking below 219.5p, it enhances the probability of any near term bounce being short lived. When we review the immediate downtrend, the demand is for anything above 228 apparently suggesting the speed of descent has eased, allowing recovery to an initial 235p. This, while fairly useful, unfortunately ensures the share price remains in the drop zone with 202p offering the chance of a probable “real” bottom.

Only above 238 shall we start taking any recovery seriously as this will trash the immediate drop prospects and take the share into a region where 248 presents a target.

For now, below 216 still suggests 202p as providing a “bottom” but secondary, if broken, comes along at 177p eventually.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:23:28PM

BRENT

70.09

               

Success

9:25:30PM

GOLD

1273.82

               

9:47:24PM

FTSE

7321.61

               

Shambles

9:49:02PM

FRANCE

5368.7

               

9:55:30PM

GERMANY

12149.72

               

Shambles

9:58:55PM

US500

2855.82

2845

2836

2824

2865

2867

2872.5

2881

2850

10:00:59PM

DOW

25776

               

10:09:44PM

NASDAQ

7416.22

               

Shambles

10:11:40PM

JAPAN

21226

21190

21156.5

21075

21313

21359

21412

21486

21242

22/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7334 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,971,356,122 a change of 24.95%

Lloyds for 22/05/2019

Lloyds Bank #Cac40 #Nasdaq UK Bank share prices continue to adhere to the Elephant sex joke. If you’re successful, it takes 18 months for anything to happen. If unsuccessful, get trampled to death. When we last reviewed Lloyds, we speculated it was probably about to get stuck in a trading range between 57.5 and 63p. Guess what?

In the period since our last analysis, the share broke our 63p trigger level, hit our initial 60p target (crucially breaking it on the first downward surge) and despite a low of 59.2p, Lloyds remains with the threat of a bottom around the 57.5p level. But it’s proving painfully slow but is probably presenting a safe trading target, regardless of whether opting for a Long or Short position. Regardless of choice, entering around the midway level in the 60p area, then waiting a while to take some profit, looks a viable strategy. For a Long position, a stop can be emplaced around 56p, for a Short position, a stop looks like 64p. As the chart shows, the difficult part of any trade looks like patience.

We’re actually (a bit) surprised it hasn’t hit the 57.5p level yet but for some reason, banking shares appear attuned to whatever Brexit music is playing politically. If this is indeed the case, the big picture presently suggests 41p is exerting a long term attraction eventually, doubtless requiring the correct level of political incompetence to sufficiently damage the share price. Indeed, if the political will exists to really trash Lloyds share price, “ultimate bottom” now calculates down at 26p.

If we opt to assume the worst for the near term, apparently weakness on Lloyds now below 59.2p should drive the share back to 57.5p initially. We’d hope for a rebound at such a level but we must admit, we can now calculate a secondary at 56p.

Should we attempt a positive stance, the price requires better 65.3p to confirm a rise is possible, this triggering potential movement to 68p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a game changing 77p.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:50:16PM

BRENT

71.42

               

9:52:59PM

GOLD

1274.91

               

9:55:06PM

FTSE

7355.8

               

‘cess

9:57:33PM

FRANCE

5387

5345

5330

5306

5380

5403

5427

5459

5348

10:01:01PM

GERMANY

12160.94

               

Success

10:03:16PM

US500

2865.17

               

10:06:02PM

DOW

25881

               

‘cess

10:08:29PM

NASDAQ

7456.54

7387

7362.5

7325

7456

7475

7509.5

7563

7412

10:11:21PM

JAPAN

21365

               

‘cess

21/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of 0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,579,496,230 a change of 2.76%

FORD for 21/05/2019

Ford #Gold #SP500 It’s not often we have to warn a report may contain ‘spite’ but Ford, announcing 7,000 job cuts, reminded of another reason we utterly despise the company and their products. The problem was a car purchased for the dogs as our usually wet and muddy Golden Retrievers tend trash a vehicle interior. We bought a Ford C-Max as a worthy pooch transport.

Cumulatively, the thing managed remain roadworthy for just 2 out of 8 months, a series of electronic problems tending ensure it never could be trusted to complete a journey. Even dealerships admitted bewilderment, when C-Max electronics decide to play games. We gave up and sold the thing with Ford finally winning the accolade for a real dog of a car. It will be the only Ford ever purchased, such was the level of trouble. We wonder, in this day and age, how could a car maker fail to implement reliable electronics, given Japan have been doing it since the 1980’s? (However, it was nice seeing it report 72mpg at motorway speeds!)

Thus, our approach to the company share price is tinged with distaste but to be fair, there’s quite a lot to dislike. Despite strong recovery since the trauma of 2009, the share price faltered and is now presenting a distinctly dodgy picture. The big problem is the Red line on the chart, currently around 8.1 dollars. Weakness below this level looks capable of driving the price down to 6.29 next. While a bounce from 6.29 is possible, in the absence of a miracle we’d suspect it short lived as secondary, should 6.29 break, is down at 1 dollar. Visually this will represent a return to match the lows of the market crash!

To get out of trouble as we already suspect 6.29 shall appear, the price requires better 11.75 as this should trigger some recovery to an initial 13.25. The chart tends suggest, should such a level be attained, some hesitation can be expected as it appears a glass ceiling awaits. Only with closure above 13.25 dare we accept a secondary longer term calculation of  16.80.

For now, similar to our gladly unmissed Ford C-Max, we distrust the company share price but shall take an interest should it achieve the 6.29 level. And who knows, if the 1 dollar mark ever appears, considering buying Ford would not be out of the question!

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:49:34PM

BRENT

71.54

               

10:52:15PM

GOLD

1278.38

1273

1268

1263.5

1279

1279

1283

1291

1274

‘cess

10:54:52PM

FTSE

7313

               

‘cess

10:57:31PM

FRANCE

5358.5

               

Success

11:00:26PM

GERMANY

12057.18

               

Success

11:03:05PM

US500

2848.38

2838

2830.5

2810

2855

2872

2880

2887

2853

‘cess

11:06:17PM

DOW

25744

               

‘cess

11:09:13PM

NASDAQ

7400

               

Success

11:12:07PM

JAPAN

21176

               

‘cess

20/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7310 points. Change of -0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,429,558,447 a change of -17.82%

Thomas Cook for 20/05/2019

Thomas Cook #Brent #DAX Headlines such as below, “what are your rights if…” are rarely encouraging when viewing the future for a company share price. Oddly, despite recent trauma, we’re not entirely convinced Thomas Cook have finished their crash landing!

The big problem we have is circled on the chart. When the share price was gapped below the uptrend since 2012, this moved the price into a region where the big picture calculated provided an “ultimate” target bottom of -18p, an obviously impossible number. We’re forced to review movements since the price was manipulated below the RED uptrend in the hope of finding a level which may prove to be bottom, a point where it will be reasonable to hope for a bounce. At present, the signals suggest continued traffic below 10p points at an initial 7p. If broken, secondary is a hopeful bottom by 4p.

It’s worth remembering that circled area on the chart.

This was a clear indication the stock market wanted TCG down in price with the suggestion the good times were now over. The price will need something approaching a miracle to return it above RED on the chart. Working on the basis a rebound can be hoped, if only due to the volume of folk thinking “TCG is cheap”, any bounce from the 4p to 7p zone proving capable of exceeding 13p should have sufficient strength to reach 17p. If bettered, secondary is at 22p and we’d need stir the tea leaves again to gauge possibilities above such a level.

For the present, Thomas Cook are showing some pretty dire potentials and the Big Picture scenario with -18p is a pretty major concern.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

6:54:27PM

BRENT

71.59

71.24

70.59

69.82

72.42

72.64

73.045

74.5

71.64

6:57:01PM

GOLD

1278.06

               

Success

7:07:14PM

FTSE

7340.44

               

7:09:07PM

FRANCE

5419.8

               

7:11:39PM

GERMANY

12202.6

12147

12095.5

12021

12242

12272

12292.5

12453

12180

Sorry

7:13:36PM

US500

2860.22

               

7:15:25PM

DOW

25776.9

               

7:35:48PM

NASDAQ

7499.75

               

7:37:19PM

JAPAN

21207

               

Shambles

 

17/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7348 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,607,288,345 a change of 21.38%

FTSE & SP500 for 17/05/2019

FTSE, #SP500 #GOLD We had a stunning result against the S&P, one so impressive we didn’t notice until someone emailed. Our report in March (link) detailed an upper target of 2954 for the S&P. It hit 2954.13 on the first of May, carefully going no higher since. How could we be so accurate, 49 days before the event?

It was interesting, on the initial surge to 2884, the market actually bettered our target, reaching 2885.25 before a slight fall back. Our rule of thumb is always, if an initial target is bettered, we expect the secondary to be achieved. Recently, we modified this thinking, adding “on the first surge” as an important part of the scenario. From our perspective, beating 2884 (on the first surge) made 2954 inevitable. The situation remains, quite forcibly, of short positions being in jeopardy if 2954 bettered. The S&P shall find it difficult to restrain itself from growth.

It’s important to remember we are discussing the S&P 500 index and NOT SP500 Futures. The Futures market will generally be a few points adrift from the actual index.

The situation now suggests growth above 2954 should attempt an initial 3003 points. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 3044 points. In fact, we shall regard the long term influence as coming from a distant looking 3278 points.

Any attempt at a slowdown requires the index to fall below 2816 points, though to be honest, we’d prefer the 2800 level be broken to convince us of trouble. In such a scenario, our initial drop target is at 2720 points with secondary, if broken, at 2645. We would expect a reasonable bounce from the 2645 level if it makes an appearance.

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Maintaining the theme of success, our private report to clients at lunchtime Thursday proposed 7352 as an initial target. The day high (and closing point) was 7353.51, so we are supposed to believe the FTSE is due some further recovery.

Some slight doubts appear as generally a price will mess around for a while at an initial target, almost as it it wants to confirm this was a correct trend level. We call this “stutters” and will not be surprised if the UK market stutters a bit on Friday. However, the scenario now exists of movement beyond 7354 suggesting coming travel up to 7377 points next. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7409 points.

We can calculate the tightest “sane” stop at 7257 points. But realistically, below 7318 points would cause raised eyebrows, if such a movement occurred following an upward trigger.

If we review converse arguments, the index requires weaken below 7257 before we dare take any reversal seriously. Such a triggering motion allows travel down to an initial 7224 points with secondary, if broken on an initial drop, at 7181 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7308 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:30:30PM

BRENT

72.29

71.24

70.6

   

72.87

73.115

   

‘cess

10:33:31PM

GOLD

1287.3

1285

1282

   

1289

1291

   

Success

10:35:41PM

FTSE

7352.75

7294

7273.5

   

7362

7373

   

‘cess

10:37:36PM

FRANCE

5438.5

5357

5341.5

   

5454

5468.5

   

‘cess

10:40:56PM

GERMANY

12289

12152

12094

   

12319

12345.75

   

Success

10:44:08PM

US500

2877.97

2837

2813.5

   

2893

2904

   

‘cess

10:46:56PM

DOW

25874.8

25655

25598

   

25961

26057

   

Success

10:50:47PM

NASDAQ

7591.82

7465

7433.225

   

7629

7681.75

   

Success

10:53:20PM

JAPAN

21242

20937

20836

   

21336

21412.75

   

16/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7353 points. Change of 0.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,678,084 a change of -13.14%

Stagecoach for 16/05/2019

Stagecoach #Brent #Nasdaq An unpleasant incident forced consideration of buses. Living in the sticks in Scotland, personal transport is a must as public transport tends be sporadic. In fact, until today, I literally had never been on a bus. This state of affairs changed, following chiropody of all things!

It all started with two toenails which, for years, required treatment due to their habit of ingrowing. A doctors throwaway comment, “why not get them removed, I’ll make an appointment” was the catalyst, the deed carried out today. A completely painless operation. And something not recommended! Before the operation, the two injections on each toe proved the most painful ever experienced. And yes, this does include a lumbar puncture! But the bigger issue was one of stupidity.

“It will be 24 hours before you can legally drive again…” she said. After explaining I had driven and had no-one available to drive me home, she suggested I get a bus. While in the car park, considering ignoring the legalities of driving, I could see a distant bus threading along the main road, immediately deciding to catch it. Due to the road network, if the vehicle was heading North, it would pass my house.

Once the shock of the ticket cost passed (I’d foolishly assumed a bus was something which would never cost more than a quid for a journey) I resolved to review bus company shares as surely this level of theft must be reflected in their share prices!

Stagecoach are actually looking fairly interesting.

The most important facet of their price is at 94p. There are quite a few arguments which anticipated the price hitting such a level but instead, we suspect it is bouncing from a low of 113p. Perhaps the implication is of some real strength.

This situation now is fairly useful as movement above 141p looks capable of an initial 156p. Our secondary, if such a point is bettered, calculates at a trend testing 164p. When we view recent recovery to move the share price above the long term RED uptrend, there is a hint the market wants it up.

The alternate situation is of weakness below 113p. This allows for reversal to 94p with secondary, if broken, at a ridiculous looking 20p. Only with price closure above BLUE (166p presently) does this threat recede.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:58:16PM

BRENT

71.83

70

69.405

68.59

71.2

71.85

72.14

73.09

69.97

10:00:12PM

GOLD

1296.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:18:47PM

FTSE

7284.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Success

10:21:18PM

FRANCE

5372.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

‘cess

10:23:37PM

GERMANY

12101.94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

‘cess

10:26:32PM

US500

2853.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shambles

10:29:23PM

DOW

25667.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:31:47PM

NASDAQ

7515.52

7463

7448

7422

7501

7526

7534

7618

7450

Success

10:33:54PM

JAPAN

21182

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7296 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,267,316,415 a change of 5.63%