De La Rue & The Deer…

Just thinking aloud,#DeLaRue (LSE:DLAR) dare not be regarded as cheap until 234p. Currently at 302p. But if 234p breaks, we shall tend think of 15p as being cheap. As for The Deer, our market analysis received 10% of the views this snapshot of a bambi achieved.

Go figure!

Little bastard teasing the dogs!

FTSE for 31/05/2019

FTSE for FRIDAY #CAC40 #DOW

We remain humbled at the volume of folk who read our Friday missive, visiting from all around the world. For the first time ever, we get to say “hi” to folk in Zimbabwe, making a surprise visit last week. Googles Analytics service remains addictive, giving the excuse for a wasted 30 minutes.

As for the FTSE for Friday, we lack confidence for the day. In theory, above 7232 should now promote a visit to 7245 points initially. Secondary, if bettered on the first upward surge, calculates at a more useful 7274 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7198 points.

What happens if 7198 breaks?

We’d expect weakness down to an initial 7180 points. If broken, secondary is at 7147 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7230 points.

The water is further muddied by the fact Friday is the last day of a month. For some reason, this often sees logic abandoned, faster than a politicians stance on Brexit. Our feeling earlier in the week for to expect the FTSE to eventually reverse and hit a “bottom” at 7106 points. Perhaps some indicators are due to be released which shall justify a really grotty end to the month.

Additionally, it is worth pointing out the FTSE has now slithered below the uptrend for 2019, this tending suggest long positions risk trouble unless the index betters 7137 points, regaining the trend.

We’re braced for the worst.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

11:02:55PM

BRENT

65.21

               

Success

11:05:37PM

GOLD

1288.61

               

‘cess

11:07:22PM

FTSE

7232.45

               

Success

11:09:36PM

FRANCE

5258.7

5228

5200

5188

5260

5260

5269

5292

5230

Success

11:12:18PM

GERMANY

11926.81

               

11:14:19PM

US500

2790.42

               

11:15:56PM

DOW

25179

25053

24990

24920

25154

25221

25334

25468

25060

11:17:52PM

NASDAQ

7248.5

               

11:19:29PM

JAPAN

20952

               

 

30/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7218 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,645,838,804 a change of -15.45%

Sirius Minerals for 30/05/2019

#SP500 #DAX Our last in-depth look at Sirius was back in February at 20p (link here) and it has been getting seriously close to our 13p target. Interestingly, since their Open Offer deal, a few pundits are suggesting the share price is now undervalued, even proposing some interesting rise potentials. So, is it at bottom?

To be honest, we’re not sure. The price is certainly hovering at the 15p level, giving an indication a “floor” has been found. With our distrust of the way in which the market treats investors, we’d be uncomfortable suggesting it’s at bottom, if only due to the price floundering around in “lower low” territory. There can be little doubt trades now below 14.95p should provoke reversal to 13p and visually a bounce.

Consider this. If the price were somehow to close below 13p, actual bottom should prove to be at around 4p!

The folk who believe in chart patterns should not be confused with those who follow horoscopes or technical indicators. Quite often, a complex sounding chart pattern is simply describing a logical mental process. The current one potentially effecting SXX is circled in RED on the chart. The first peak is the “Hey, I don’t think it will get higher, I’m taking profit” sentiment. The second peak echoes the initial one. And the third peak is fairly simple; “It’s had a good run, don’t trust it now, I’m out of here”.

At this point, another force takes over; “Ooops, it has broken the immediate uptrend again. Think I’ll just wait and see.”

And before you know it, you’ve got a classic Head & Shoulders formation, one which points at reversal to 4p eventually. Essentially, it’s entirely based on how a trader will view price movements, along with the emotional cycle. More often than not, it works out, even if you have to squint a bit to recognise the chart pattern.

Our own thinking is of reversal coming to 13p anytime soon, along with a bounce at such a point. The RED uptrend dates back to 2010 and should prove perfectly capable for traders to pile in, with the belief such a long term uptrend must provoke a rebound.

At present, any rebound exceeding 22p should bring a visit to an initial 25.5p. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 35p in the future. In fact, we can even compute a best case scenario at 46p, a point where we’d again stir the tea leaves.

For now, it feels like 13p shall prove worth watching for.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:33:06PM

BRENT

68.18

               

Success

10:34:48PM

GOLD

1280.47

               

10:38:02PM

FTSE

7187.2

               

Success

10:40:04PM

FRANCE

5234.5

               

Success

10:48:57PM

GERMANY

11856.68

11809

11774

11658

11930

11961

11988.5

12049

11846

Success

10:55:07PM

US500

2780.02

2765

2747

2732

2805

2806

2817.5

2835

2778

Success

11:01:20PM

DOW

25105

               

Success

11:03:48PM

NASDAQ

7208.92

               

Success

11:05:23PM

JAPAN

20897

               

Success

 

29/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7185 points. Change of -1.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,494,839,915 a change of -51.63%

28/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7268 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,358,899,271 a change of 108.69%

Galliford Try for 29/05/2019

Galliford Try #Gold #SP500 The often confused “we want to buy you, then you want to buy us” events surrounding Galliford Try and Bovis appear to be concluded for now. We last reviewed Galliford in February last year, when the price was 800p. Our initial drop potential was 696p – achieved – with secondary (when broken) at 308p. Any changes?

We’ve a slight suspicion Bovis may have dodged a bullet here as the share price is trading below its last ditch uptrend since 2010. There are a couple of important thoughts pertaining to its current position. Weakness now below 499p looks capable of entering a cycle down to 431p initially. We’d hope for a bounce at such a level but if broken, secondary calculates at 265p.

Rather worse is the calculation of the share price now trading in a region where “ultimate” bottom (the level we cannot calculate below) is at 39p. Obviously, this is the sort of ridiculous drop which usually requires some really grotty news issued.

At present, the share requires better 850p, just to signal the immediate pace of descent has eased. Such a miracle allows recovery to an initial 1079p. If bettered, secondary is at a longer term 1385p.

For now, it appears dangerous but perhaps worth watching for 265p making an appearance at some point.  After all, folk will look at the lows of 2009 and 2010 and judge, for this reason alone, a bounce can be expected.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:48:18PM

BRENT

68.8

               

‘cess

10:50:23PM

GOLD

1279.5

1276

1273

1270

1281

1285

1288

1292

1278

‘cess

11:00:52PM

FTSE

7248.41

               

11:03:00PM

FRANCE

5285.2

               

‘cess

11:04:48PM

GERMANY

11982

               

‘cess

11:06:32PM

US500

2802.12

2799

2786

2768

2827

2840

2850

2867

2819

Success

11:08:43PM

DOW

25353

               

Shambles

11:10:24PM

NASDAQ

7282.65

               

11:12:13PM

JAPAN

20989

               

Shambles

28/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7268 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,358,899,271 a change of 108.69%

24/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7277 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,076,043 a change of -8.12%

Barclays for 28/05/2019

Barclays, #Brent, #DAX Our previous review of Barclays (link here) had a pretty miserable expectation, should the share price break below our drop target. Unfortunately, this has now happened and there’s the slimmest of margins inhibiting it opening the gates of gloom. The problem number is currently 148.82p.

Absolutely nothing to do with Barclays. Google News algorithms can be odd!

In the event Barclays closes a session below 148.823p, we’re looking for traffic down to an initial 136p. To be blunt, if it even trades below 147p, it shall be viewed as entering this reversal cycle. Our secondary, if 136p breaks, calculates at 114p. It’s rather worrying to note, we’ve two quite distinct arguments suggesting Barclays share price intends take a visit down to the 114p level eventually. About the only encouraging signal left is fairly simple. The share has NOT yet closed below the RED uptrend since 2009, hence our fascination with 148.823p. However, the share price has broken below this trend during the last two sessions, so we’d be far from confident the trend line shall hold.

There’s obviously the risk of the somewhat confused series of political results from the EU election entering the fray, if any of the mainstream politicians actually can decide what they stand for. At present, Barclays requires exceed 165p to convince us it has exited the drop zone to 136p eventually. Visually, there’s quite a strong suggestion the price will head to 136p, execute some sort of short lived bounce, then eventually wander downward to 114p.

It needs exceed 166p to signal our misery is misplaced, allowing recovery to an initial 174p. If bettered, secondary is at 191p.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:10:58PM

BRENT

68.85

67.27

66.57

65.76

68.7

69.05

69.335

70.38

67.4

10:12:57PM

GOLD

1285.53

               

10:29:38PM

FTSE

7287.92

               

10:31:37PM

FRANCE

5338

               

10:38:08PM

GERMANY

12067.52

12014

11974.5

11925

12088

12123

12162.5

12242

12024

10:40:32PM

US500

2830.47

               

10:46:12PM

DOW

25648

               

10:51:32PM

NASDAQ

7311.49

               

10:53:37PM

JAPAN

21212

               

24/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7277 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,076,043 a change of -8.12%

FTSE FRIDAY for 24/05/2019

#Gold #SP500 As we live through the final days of a failed political career, it’s easy to imagine the abrupt downward surge on the FTSE was a direct result of the UK’s “Strong and Stable (aka, Weak and Shoogly)” governance. We’re fairly confident drops experienced on Thursday had nothing to do with the Prime Minister.

It all goes back to a market movement, worldwide, on Wednesday. Sharp eyed readers viewing our evening UK Futures noted we used the word “Shambles” to describe the previous days results. Our preference, obviously, is to use “Success” or ” ‘cess”, denoting whether one or two targets were achieved. We only employ “Shambles” when market behaviour makes absolutely no sense. Only once the day was over and tempers calmed did we start to suspect what had happened.

At 13:26 on Wednesday, a whole bunch of indices both in Europe and the USA dropped, for a couple of seconds, below levels we’d designed as key trigger levels to open SHORT positions. Once these short positions triggered, the indices immediately reversed direction, spending the following 90 minutes climbing above logical Stop Loss levels for each and every one of the SHORT positions.

Thus, the trades would be cancelled and traders left out of pocket. A co-ordinated effort, internationally, reminded us sharply why we avoid comment on Forex unless from a Big Picture perspective. This sort of market behaviour, in our opinion, is rather lacking in ethics. The following private note was included on Wednesday evening for our clients;

With shares, I tend regard this as a clear warning signal for a coming drop with the market opting to trigger a bunch of trades with attractive stop loss levels. This essentially clears out the folk who were poised to take advantage of coming reversals.”

Markets dropped sharply on Thursday, as feared. But behaviour on Wednesday was clearly designed to wipe out SHORT positions, prior to the drop!

Our tantrum over, what’s next?

The FTSE actually dropped further than we’d like. It closed Thursday at 7230 points and now lurks with the threat of weakness below 7210 bringing travel down to 7160 points next. Our secondary, should 7156 break, calculates at 7091 points.

If triggered, the tightest stop level looks like 7270 points. But given market behaviour as listed previously, we’d prefer wider still at 7301 points.

We’ve an obvious disparity between a drop target 7160 and trigger level of 7156. This is fairly simple, due to the FTSE being manipulated (gapped) downward by 14 points at the open on Thursday morning. Essentially, this nonsense confuses our software.

What happens if the FTSE exceeds 7270 points? Initially we’re looking for 7300 points. Our secondary, if such a point exceeded, calculates at 7375 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7210 points.

Perhaps it is also worth mentioning the index (somehow) remains above the 2019 Red uptrend on the chart below. We’re far from comfortable this state of affairs shall continue.

On a brighter note, it’s the Monaco GP this weekend, possibly the most boring race on the F1 calendar yet one which makes compulsive viewing in the hope something happens. Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:25:51PM

BRENT

67.02

               

Success

10:28:00PM

GOLD

1284

1272.82

1270.5

1265

1279

1287.25

1291

1298

1279

Success

10:31:18PM

FTSE

7233.72

               

Success

10:33:56PM

FRANCE

5284.7

               

Success

10:37:14PM

GERMANY

11948

               

‘cess

10:39:15PM

US500

2821.12

2810

2800.5

2770

2835

2845

2850.5

2866

2822

Success

10:43:26PM

DOW

25485.8

               

Success

10:45:47PM

NASDAQ

7308.12

               

Success

10:48:17PM

JAPAN

20874

               

Success

23/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7231 points. Change of -1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,924,231,411 a change of -15.02%

RBS for 23/05/2019

RBS #SP500 #NK225 In our monthly visit to “The Bank that likes to say ‘Doh!’ “, the star of the clown sector of the FTSE has performed pretty much as expected. Our prior report (link here) was notable in lacking any confidence for an immediate share price recovery and now, we require to examine what the break of our initial target risks?

With the share price breaking below 219.5p, it enhances the probability of any near term bounce being short lived. When we review the immediate downtrend, the demand is for anything above 228 apparently suggesting the speed of descent has eased, allowing recovery to an initial 235p. This, while fairly useful, unfortunately ensures the share price remains in the drop zone with 202p offering the chance of a probable “real” bottom.

Only above 238 shall we start taking any recovery seriously as this will trash the immediate drop prospects and take the share into a region where 248 presents a target.

For now, below 216 still suggests 202p as providing a “bottom” but secondary, if broken, comes along at 177p eventually.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:23:28PM

BRENT

70.09

               

Success

9:25:30PM

GOLD

1273.82

               

9:47:24PM

FTSE

7321.61

               

Shambles

9:49:02PM

FRANCE

5368.7

               

9:55:30PM

GERMANY

12149.72

               

Shambles

9:58:55PM

US500

2855.82

2845

2836

2824

2865

2867

2872.5

2881

2850

10:00:59PM

DOW

25776

               

10:09:44PM

NASDAQ

7416.22

               

Shambles

10:11:40PM

JAPAN

21226

21190

21156.5

21075

21313

21359

21412

21486

21242

22/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7334 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,971,356,122 a change of 24.95%